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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand?

Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand?

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31 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:16 pm

Nothing at all

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ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
ummmm it's not a long shot! he's locked in 7.5m with his bonus win

32 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:33 pm

Hubbaup


untouchables wrote:My picks at this stage for the women's 120m

Amie Mittiga

Gabriella Boulton

Laura Downie

Ebony Lane

Adelaide Robertson

Hanna Lindstrom

Sienna Fighera

Olivia Russo

Stephanie Richards

Holly Dobbyn

Laura Jane Hilditch

Tara Domaschenz

Sophia Fighera

Kate Jones

Anna Pasquali

Lauren Keating



You will have to start whittling them down a bit Untouchables, you can’t back 16 of them and expect to make a quid. By the way you missed a couple mate

33 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:53 pm

YETI

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WhataboutmeMrHandicapper wrote:Why are there different handicaps for different Stawell Gift results? One year an athlete runs 3rd, he gets pulled 1.5, another guy runs 3rd and he hardly gets pulled at all. Matthews ran 3rd off 6.75 only 2 Stawells back and by Marbyrnong he had his mark back.
Houlihan, runs every second week in Victoria, beat Matthews hardly runs in Vic and made 3 Stawell finals, by 1 metre in 2015. Now meets him 2.75 worse off? I just don't get it.
If you are thinking it's wide open you are delusional. Very few chances to win.
Plenty for 4th, 5th 6th.
Matthews has a PB of 10.69 to go with it. Matthews off 7.5 will finish in the top two at Stawell. Probably with Rizzo.
The only other contender is whoever from the Vikings. Delahunty, Gilfillan someone like that.

If you consider the two queensland athlete's above. Gilfillan and Delahunt are two athlete's that will be competitive come Stawell. Gilfillan more of a chance to make final and potentially take the win.
Going off last year he was very impressive. If he can improve on his performance. We might just have a favourite for stawell.

34 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:04 pm

YETI

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untouchables wrote:My picks at this stage for the women's 120m

Amie Mittiga

Gabriella Boulton

Laura Downie

Ebony Lane

Adelaide Robertson

Hanna Lindstrom

Sienna Fighera

Olivia Russo

Stephanie Richards

Holly Dobbyn

Laura Jane Hilditch

Tara Domaschenz

Sophia Fighera

Kate Jones

Anna Pasquali

Lauren Keating


Women's final: Not many athlete's showing their cards.

Domaschenz
Loizou
Perry
S.Fighera
Austin
Richards

35 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:23 am

untouchables

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Hubbaup wrote:
untouchables wrote:My picks at this stage for the women's 120m

Amie Mittiga

Gabriella Boulton

Laura Downie

Ebony Lane

Adelaide Robertson

Hanna Lindstrom

Sienna Fighera

Olivia Russo

Stephanie Richards

Holly Dobbyn

Laura Jane Hilditch

Tara Domaschenz

Sophia Fighera

Kate Jones

Anna Pasquali

Lauren Keating



You will have to start whittling them down a bit Untouchables, you can’t back 16 of them and expect to make a quid. By the way you missed a couple mate

i think i know which one but this time i will bet to win a few gorillas i need the cash to pay for the hotel lol!

36 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:02 am

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
auspro wrote:For Mathews to get 7.5m is a long shot given he hits his ceiling at 10.86 (or 10.76 with 0.1 for rubber)
Correct auspro.

The VAL will again guarantee winners of the selected 100/120m races in Victoria an automatic lift for the 2018 Stawell Gift.
 

  • The athlete must not break net time in the win.
  • A second win over the 100/120m distance will deem the athlete ineligible for the lift.
  • The lift will be added to the athletes winning handicap.
  • In receiving this lift, athletes will not be handicapped to a mark that places them beyond their ceiling handicap. More information on ceiling times can be found within the Handiap Regulations.
  • Athletes that are allocated a UP (Unacceptable Performance) during the season may not automatically qualify for the lift in the Stawell Gift. This will be at the stewards discretion.

37 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:52 pm

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
Ribera wrote:
auspro wrote:For Mathews to get 7.5m is a long shot given he hits his ceiling at 10.86 (or 10.76 with 0.1 for rubber)
Correct auspro.

The VAL will again guarantee winners of the selected 100/120m races in Victoria an automatic lift for the 2018 Stawell Gift.
 

  • The athlete must not break net time in the win.
  • A second win over the 100/120m distance will deem the athlete ineligible for the lift.
  • The lift will be added to the athletes winning handicap.
  • In receiving this lift, athletes will not be handicapped to a mark that places them beyond their ceiling handicap. More information on ceiling times can be found within the Handiap Regulations.
  • Athletes that are allocated a UP (Unacceptable Performance) during the season may not automatically qualify for the lift in the Stawell Gift. This will be at the stewards discretion.


It is quite possible he will actually be pulled for Stawell. 6m or 5.75m is his mark if they include his PB with no adjustment. So he will probably stay on 7.5m Rolling Eyes

38 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:58 pm

auspro


Well no. With 10.72pb. Ceiling is 7.25?

39 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:37 pm

Mex

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Moderator
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YETI wrote:
WhataboutmeMrHandicapper wrote:
Matthews has a PB of 10.69 to go with it. Matthews off 7.5 will finish in the top two at Stawell. Probably with Rizzo.
The only other contender is whoever from the Vikings. Delahunty, Gilfillan someone like that.
.

The IAAF website still has him at 11 flat. Matty B Dept page has him at 10.72. Or is it 10.69 as above?

A PB at 10.72 with a target time of 12.25sec his distance travelled is 114.272 (12.25/0.1072=114.272). 120m less the distance travelled is the handicap is 5.728m in our terms that would be 5.75m.
Maybe my Maths is out or I am too old to work out such things. Doesn't the VAL use a computer to get the numbers right? Does the Handicap Review Panel check this as well for human error?
I cannot find anything in the handicap guidelines that mentions an allowance for a PB on a track as opposed to grass. If someone could quote it for me I am happy to adjust my sums.

40 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:50 pm

ToM

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ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Mex, from the VAL Handicapping Regulations, page 10:

“Adjustment for Artificial Tracks
The following additions are made to times recorded on artificial tracks for the calculation of RPMs. This is done in order to equate times on artificial tracks to that of a good grass track.
• 70 & 100 metres – 0.1
• 200 metres – 0.2
• 300 metres – 0.5
• 400 metres and above – 1.0 per 400.”

http://www.val.org.au/Portals/0/downloads/VAL%20HANDICAP%20REGULATIONS%20%5BCURRENT%5D%202.pdf?ver=2017-11-30-101141-633

41 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:45 am

auspro


so off the 10.72 and 0.1s for track allowance and his ceiling is 6.75m (6.78)

42 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:52 am

Nothing at all

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ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Guys stop stressing! hahaha He will be on 7.5m at Easter. Forget his PB, handicapper obviously doesn't care otherwise he wouldn't of had 6.75m already. Also how long ago did he run that? Make sure you get some money on him!

43 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:08 am

Baltimore Jack


Agree with auspro.
After coming 3rd, in 2015 Matthews starting mark should have been 5.25. He could not possibly have had enough runs to get back to 6.75 within a couple of seasons. Handicapper has obviously erred by lifting him back to his ceiling mark so quickly. He was already on his ceiling before Maribyrnong.
His Stawell mark should be 6.75 which is still very good and puts him in the final.

44 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:02 am

YETI

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Mathews has the ability to make the final. However won’t finish in the top 2

45 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:33 pm

BadSnowman


Jason Bailey would have to be in the frame to make the Stawell gift final now, terrific run at Geelong yesterday.

46 My updated list for Womens 120 m at stawell on Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:33 pm

untouchables

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Ebony Lane

Sophia Fighera

Anna Pasquali

Gabriella Boulton

Adelaide Robertson

Laura Downie

Holly Dobbyn

Amie Mittiga

Sarah Blizzard

47 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:15 am

YETI

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BadSnowman wrote:Jason Bailey would have to be in the frame to make the Stawell gift final now, terrific run at Geelong yesterday.

Bailey is a great athlete. However tipping he will not make the final.

The win has a high possibility of heading interstate this year Shocked

Athletes you toss in that have no bonus lift

Gilfillan
Hunt
Delahunty
Panizza
Houlihan
Lugo
Burleigh
Nettlefold

Despard still looking the goods Rolling Eyes

48 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:37 am

Trackstar

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Moderator
Moderator
YETI wrote:
BadSnowman wrote:Jason Bailey would have to be in the frame to make the Stawell gift final now, terrific run at Geelong yesterday.

Bailey is a great athlete. However tipping he will not make the final.

The win has a high possibility of heading interstate this year Shocked

Athletes you toss in that have no bonus lift

Gilfillan
Hunt
Delahunty
Panizza
Houlihan
Lugo
Burleigh
Nettlefold

Despard still looking the goods Rolling Eyes

A couple of athletes missing off your list Yeti.
But if Despard and Rizzo are off the same mark 4.50, Rizzo will demolish him in the first 50. No way Despard could match Rizzo on what I saw at Rye. Despard should make the final, like Romanin last year tho, he will be finishing behind the Rizzonator.

49 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:54 pm

YETI

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A couple of athletes missing off your list Yeti.
But if Despard and Rizzo are off the same mark 4.50, Rizzo will demolish him in the first 50. No way Despard could match Rizzo on what I saw at Rye. Despard should make the final, like Romanin last year tho, he will be finishing behind the Rizzonator.[/quote]

Don't write despard off just yet trackstar. Need to give the bloke some hope right Laughing

50 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:52 pm

WildWestern


Take a look at the Vic 100m Final.

Interesting to see Despard clearly pulling up wow

51 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:58 pm

auspro


Could have a leas taken 2nd place. what is his ceiling 10.6 or so?

52 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:19 pm

WildWestern


auspro wrote:Could have a leas taken 2nd place. what is his ceiling 10.6 or so?


Exactly. Take second or don't run. Simple Rolling Eyes

Yes roughly

53 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:10 am

auspro


This is how it is WildWestern.

Here is a nice little comparison of 2 runners in fairly similar form based off ACT champs.

Finegan & Despard. (massive fan of direct comparisons)



After running within 0.01s of each other here, Finegan goes on to run a PB 10.58. Despard blatantly pulls up at VIC obviously protecting a HC. Finegan gets pulled, Despard will keep his mark and lift for Stawell.
Even blind freddy can see flaws in the "the system" that gives the impression of punishing hard racing and supporting such performances.

Regardless I can see both these guys racing off for a finals place in low 12.3s come easter. would be great to see them battle it out in a semi F.

54 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:32 pm

Hey Hey

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All these posts about this guy ran this and another ran that, a lot of what has been put is in the past (lifts extra) it will all come down to who can peak at the right time. Head to head for example of Finnegan and Despard. Factors, can Finnegan run rounds, lost a lot between heat and semi at nationals, how do bigger power athletes go on grass v track,. Track PB's aren't all the same. Canberra / Brisbane / Syd (10.6 runners run 10.8 in melb) tracks always quicker than Melb. have they already peaked our just coming into form, not just these guys but other gift winners. I'm on the backmarkers wagon. Theres a reason their backmarkers.

55 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:55 pm

WildWestern


Auspro I like your work. On the comparison of both Finegan & Despard. Will interesting come Stawell. But hey hey there is always a flaw in a 'system' right Laughing

Put it simple. If you aren't going to have a genuine crack towards a state title. Don't run.

Guess the sport is all about playing games geek

56 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:15 pm

auspro


Thanks hey hey I'm sure the HC will be pleased to have this new found knowledge. I'm not if u are trying to say Victorians are faster then they appear or every other state is slow but only in Victoria? I'm sure Mr Finegan will be happy to have 0.75m back because the track he ran on was 0.2s fast. Of course the times r relevant u nincompoop Wink

57 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:13 pm

Hey Hey

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Nincompoop, hahaha, last time I heard that would was in grade 1. Well done.

58 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:38 am

HarryWho


Top 10 Stawell chances based on amateur & pro results this season. For amateur results I have assumed a relative handicap of -0.5m considering the front block position relative to the start line. I also have not included any track allowance so this would alter the below slightly. The only athlete on this list without a confirmed handicap is Grubnic, as he ran of 7m last year, placed 3rd in the gift and also won the 70 he may or may not receive 6.00m but based off his PB this year, this is the maximum he can receive. Also explains why Finegan did not run Doncaster as he is already handicapped to his ceiling given a track allowance.

Athlete
Venue
Handicap
Adjusted Time
RPM
Stawell Handicap
Predicted Stawell Time
Finegan
Gold Coast
-0.50
10.60
0.1055
4.75
12.16
Rizzo
Sandringham
3.00
10.27
0.1059
4.50
12.23
Baird
Rye/Castlemaine
6.50
12.37
0.1090
7.25
12.29
Despard (Amateur)
Canberra
-0.50
10.69
0.1065
4.50
12.30
Wyllie
Wangaratta
9.00
12.37
0.1114
9.50
12.31
Grubnic
Canberra
-0.50
10.85
0.1080
6.00*
12.31
Despard
St Albans
3.75
12.40
0.1067
4.50
12.32
Lugo
Bendigo
10.75
12.26
0.1122
10.00
12.34
Adams
Wangaratta (Semi)
8.75
12.45
0.1119
9.50
12.37
Keast
Ararat
9.00
12.51
0.1127
9.75
12.43



Last edited by HarryWho on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:51 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : consistency)

59 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:14 pm

YETI

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Boy oh boy. Not long now. Shocked

whats new?

60 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:35 pm

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
YETI wrote:Boy oh boy. Not long now. Shocked

whats new?

The smart money is on waiting for the handicaps to be released now. Not many will speculate so close when we can wait a few days and see who has been given a lift for our major race. Someone will whinge about a mark that they should have or about someone that they want to highlight to take the focus off their own athletes or themselves. I have no predictions other than to make an early bet on the winner for 2019.

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