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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand?

Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand?

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61 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:18 pm

Sprinter101


By the sounds of it Josh Ross is winning his third Stawell Gift. Any idea on what mark he will receive?

62 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:47 am

DizzyRunner


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Sprinter101 wrote:By the sounds of it Josh Ross is winning his third Stawell Gift. Any idea on what mark he will receive?

If he is on anything better than his last winning mark minus 2 meters then the rest of the field should feel robbed.
Do the crime, to the time.

I've heard others argue that there should be another 1m penalty for the 1 year ban. I'll leave others to comment on that.



Last edited by DizzyRunner on Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : 2 years reduced to 1 year.)

63 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:09 am

youngy

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Dizzy - If that's your assessment based on the current handicapping landscape, then stick to circle events. The reality is that Josh will not be the fastest athlete in this field.

Josh Ross won the Stawell Gift in 2005 - 13 years ago. Pretty sure he won't be handicapped on scratch - not at the age of 36.

Besides there is a Stawell Gift winner in the field now effectively on a bigger mark than he won from only 5 years ago so it would be ridiculous to put Ross on the mark he won from 13 years ago, effectively making him worse off than a winner from 8 years later.

He did win the Bay Sheffield in 2012 from scratch, but he is no longer in that shape as demonstrated by his Bay Sheff performance in December.

My guess is he would have something around 1.0m. And from what I know of the field he will struggle off that.


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"Let's Go While We're Young"

64 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:27 pm

DizzyRunner


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Youngy, why is it every other regular competitor has to compete week-in and week-out in order to earn their ticks and receive tiny increments? Whilst an athlete who refuses to compete and earn APs is given a free ride.

Obviously I am not on top of the sprints. I don't have any vested interest. But I feel for those week-to-week competitors who fork out some serious coin to get knocked out in the heats every week and even then barely move out in the marks.

The idea that one athlete, as good as Josh, should be given free lifts just to get him to Stawell is absurd and an offense to the rest of the field.

I can think of quite a few middle and long distance guys in their mid 30s who have had ripper seasons and then disappeared due to injury or having kids and then come back only to be given their exact same marks as when they departed.

If Josh had raced all season and been uncompetitive, then that would justify a lift.

65 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:33 pm

auspro


Let Ross run in peace. H is likely racing for a semi spot off scratch anyway.
In order my final looking like: (pending HC)

Finegan
Despard
Rizzo
Wiley
Baird
Matthews or smokey


66 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:52 am

Mex

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Moderator
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youngy wrote:Dizzy - I
Besides there is a Stawell Gift winner in the field now effectively on a bigger mark than he won from only 5 years ago so it would be ridiculous to put Ross on the mark he won from 13 years ago, effectively making him worse off than a winner from 8 years later.

Are you talking about Robinson? He won off 7.25m in 2013 and his last run at Bendigo he had 5.5m. There is no one around that time that you suggest that is above their winning mark.

The list for around 5 years ago is below

2009 - Aaron Stubbs 7.25m now runs off much less
2010 - Tom Burbidge 8.75m does not compete anymore and probably should have been rubbed out after posting a time of 13.2sec the race prior.
2011 - Mitch Williams-Swain 6.5m now runs off much less (probably should be a two time champion after a false start potentially robbed him of his second win)
2012 - Matt Wiltshire 8m has been injury plagued after his win and I am not sure if we will ever see the best of Ballarat Matt. If he is the one we are talking about he would need just over double figures to be in any way competitive.
2013 - Andrew Robinson 7.25m see above
2014 - Luke Versace 10m achieved his life long dream and retired

Not sure where we are going with that one.

As for Josh Ross. Yes he probably should have scratch. Given that he is the wrong side of 30 he will need more than that. I can see him being given 1m and I find that reasonable enough, he will not final off that but it will give him a sniff to hopefully run more next season.
Dizzy, I much prefer to see a regular runner winning, those who support our sport week in week out as you suggest.

67 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:12 am

K.B


Mex, in regards to Robinson, keep in mind he received a 2m lift (Asafa Powell blanket lift for runners behind 6m if I can recall) so his normal mark would have 5.25m. Youngy is correct in that if he is on 5.5m that is greater than his Stawell winning mark. Hope this clears this one up.

68 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:50 pm

Mex

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Thanks Kev, what I was referring to was his winning mark. He won off 7.25m so he is not in front of his winning mark.

I think there have been a few occasions where the finalists have not received the pull for making the final and running a time. In essence Robbo should have been pulled back to 12.45 and then had his 4+ metre pull for winning. I maintain that the handicap review panel should pick up on some of these things. The starting handicaps could be finalised shortly after the season finishes and that way we know everything has been addressed. these marks could be posted on the website nice and early too. but again, that is another story.

69 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:22 pm

auspro


When you assume, you make an 'ass' outta 'u' an 'me'

Adding +0.5m to the track is not a thing
Subtracting -0.1s for the track is a thing


take Finegan for example, he ran 10.58 (+0.3)
=10.595 Adj W
=10.695 Adj T
=0.10695 RPM

with the bonus +0.5m
0.10695 x 114.75 (5.25m)
=12.27


HarryWho wrote:Top 10 Stawell chances based on amateur & pro results this season. For amateur results I have assumed a relative handicap of -0.5m considering the front block position relative to the start line. I also have not included any track allowance so this would alter the below slightly. The only athlete on this list without a confirmed handicap is Grubnic, as he ran of 7m last year, placed 3rd in the gift and also won the 70 he may or may not receive 6.00m but based off his PB this year, this is the maximum he can receive. Also explains why Finegan did not run Doncaster as he is already handicapped to his ceiling given a track allowance.

Athlete
Venue
Handicap
Adjusted Time
RPM
Stawell Handicap
Predicted Stawell Time
Finegan
Gold Coast
-0.50
10.60
0.1055
4.75
12.16
Rizzo
Sandringham
3.00
10.27
0.1059
4.50
12.23
Baird
Rye/Castlemaine
6.50
12.37
0.1090
7.25
12.29
Despard (Amateur)
Canberra
-0.50
10.69
0.1065
4.50
12.30
Wyllie
Wangaratta
9.00
12.37
0.1114
9.50
12.31
Grubnic
Canberra
-0.50
10.85
0.1080
6.00*
12.31
Despard
St Albans
3.75
12.40
0.1067
4.50
12.32
Lugo
Bendigo
10.75
12.26
0.1122
10.00
12.34
Adams
Wangaratta (Semi)
8.75
12.45
0.1119
9.50
12.37
Keast
Ararat
9.00
12.51
0.1127
9.75
12.43

70 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:02 pm

untouchables

avatar
auspro wrote:When you assume, you make an 'ass' outta 'u' an 'me'

Adding +0.5m to the track is not a thing
Subtracting -0.1s for the track is a thing


take Finegan for example, he ran 10.58 (+0.3)
=10.595 Adj W
=10.695 Adj T
=0.10695 RPM

with the bonus +0.5m
0.10695 x 114.75 (5.25m)
=12.27


HarryWho wrote:Top 10 Stawell chances based on amateur & pro results this season. For amateur results I have assumed a relative handicap of -0.5m considering the front block position relative to the start line. I also have not included any track allowance so this would alter the below slightly. The only athlete on this list without a confirmed handicap is Grubnic, as he ran of 7m last year, placed 3rd in the gift and also won the 70 he may or may not receive 6.00m but based off his PB this year, this is the maximum he can receive. Also explains why Finegan did not run Doncaster as he is already handicapped to his ceiling given a track allowance.

Athlete
Venue
Handicap
Adjusted Time
RPM
Stawell Handicap
Predicted Stawell Time
Finegan
Gold Coast
-0.50
10.60
0.1055
4.75
12.16
Rizzo
Sandringham
3.00
10.27
0.1059
4.50
12.23
Baird
Rye/Castlemaine
6.50
12.37
0.1090
7.25
12.29
Despard (Amateur)
Canberra
-0.50
10.69
0.1065
4.50
12.30
Wyllie
Wangaratta
9.00
12.37
0.1114
9.50
12.31
Grubnic
Canberra
-0.50
10.85
0.1080
6.00*
12.31
Despard
St Albans
3.75
12.40
0.1067
4.50
12.32
Lugo
Bendigo
10.75
12.26
0.1122
10.00
12.34
Adams
Wangaratta (Semi)
8.75
12.45
0.1119
9.50
12.37
Keast
Ararat
9.00
12.51
0.1127
9.75
12.43


I think Baird is quick but over strides by a quite a distance. Rizzo rocks side to side, spends too much on track. Finegan looks dangerous but there are lots of runners near or on the limit who are going to take up most of the final. i think i have a good eye and what i have seen this year and in the past i give chances to Richards from SA as well Nettlefold from Victoria.

71 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:52 pm

YETI

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I think Baird is quick but over strides by a quite a distance. Rizzo rocks side to side, spends too much on track. Finegan looks dangerous but there are lots of runners near or on the limit who are going to take up most of the final. i think i have a good eye and what i have seen this year and in the past i give chances to Richards from SA as well Nettlefold from Victoria.[/quote]

Mate you must be drunk. Shocked

72 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:56 pm

untouchables

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YETI wrote:I think Baird is quick but over strides by a quite a distance. Rizzo rocks side to side, spends too much on track. Finegan looks dangerous but there are lots of runners near or on the limit who are going to take up most of the final. i think i have a good eye and what i have seen this year and in the past i give chances to Richards from SA as well Nettlefold from Victoria.

Mate you must be drunk. Shocked [/quote]


and you would know shit

73 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:11 pm

Nothing at all

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ProTrack Star
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Richards from SA! You are drunk!

74 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:13 pm

YETI

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Exactly my point!!

75 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:22 pm

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
Maybe he is mistaking Richards from SA with the Richards who should go close in the women's gift?

76 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:29 pm

untouchables

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Mex wrote:Maybe he is mistaking Richards from SA with the Richards who should go close in the women's gift?

so funny Mex she has missed two weeks of training we moved house

brett had quickest time leading into the final i think i don;t care that's money on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIAOiA1OpfU


77 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:38 pm

Nothing at all

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ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
You are now definitely drunk, in fact you might need your stomach pumped. That footage is from 2016 mate! Richards just ran 12.76 at Flaggstaff Hill.

78 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:50 pm

untouchables

avatar
Nothing at all wrote:You are now definitely drunk, in fact you might need your stomach pumped. That footage is from 2016 mate! Richards just ran 12.76 at Flaggstaff Hill.

that's another good reason to tip him or other runners from SA because the only way you can is to cheat. i have seen the way they work at the race horse industries at SA in the horse racing game. i will be at stawell and come see me and say it my face.

79 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:48 am

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
Was the cat let out of the bag on the weekend? There is someone not in the entry list that I suspect will be a wild card announced this week.

80 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:07 am

Hey Hey

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Well he didnt do himself any favours running a pb on weekend, does he get scratch or lift for others

81 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:25 am

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
His p.b. time calculates to 12.43 off scratch when adding 0.1 to tartan time. If the old rule of handicapping internationals to 12.25 is still in place then he gets 1.50m.
In 2016 Hale had run faster, got 3.25m and couldn't win.

82 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:43 am

Discobull

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ribera, he pb'd on weekend, ran 10.26 on weekend, off scratch runs 12.31 (rpm) or quicker. 10.26 + (covering at least .9 for ten metres) 1.8 for last 20m = 12.06

even add track allowance 1 still under ceiling,

Gets scratch or less. He was already given free money in tassie, enoughs enough.

83 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:04 pm

YETI

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Massive pb by a full tenth. Discobull you are right. Was pretty much given free money in TAS.
Will get looked after unfortunately.

84 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:08 pm

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
I couldn't find 0.9 for 10 metres in the VAL rules.
However, using your formula, what will Gary Finegan or Jacob Despard run based purely off their pb's.
I'll give it a try.
Finegan - 10.58 + 1.8 = 12.38 off scratch. He will be on 5.25m so will take off .47 off his scratch time = 11.91. Add 0.1 for grass and he comes out at 12.01.
Despard - 10.63 + 1.8 = 12.43 off scratch. He will be on 4.50m so will take off .41 off his scratch time = 12.02. Add 0.1 for grass and he comes out at 12.12.
Both under ceiling and faster than the 10.26 man who you had at 12.16.

85 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:18 pm

Discobull

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pretty easy maths ribera, looks at the break downs of there 100m races,   devon covers 10m in .88 to .92 over last 40m,   finnegan and despard .92s to .96 last 40ms, who de-accelerates the quickest.  On grass even a bit slower. That's not the point. Has he earned his handicap or gifted like Tasmania. He can come and put bums on seats but rather see a regular win.

86 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:38 pm

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
It certainly add interest to the gift and there are many calculations. The problem is the extra 20m is an X factor OR a fake time. Similar to the fake wind readings the VAL use to make up an actual time. Some run on and some don't so the fake extra 20m is a pure guess.

The VAL calculate 100m handicap from your 120m handicap. 120 handicap divided by 120 times 100. Therefore it is conceivable they could do the reverse when calculating 120m handicaps from 100m times or handicaps. So 100m time divided by 100 times 120 for the 120m handicap.

87 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:51 pm

WJ


Just a little point here:

I don’t think he was given free money down in Tas or even if he does run, I think the hard work he has done throughout his career has allowed him to win that race. Don’t forget he was running against Riali who is a very talented runner and had a healthy mark of his own

88 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:39 pm

Discobull

avatar
200m PB 20.62 Allen, Riali 21.63, that's 9 to 10m difference, Riali had 6 Devon scratch, 4-metre headstart to Allen, yeah that fair for a guy who hasnt run an event before hahaha. Pretty sure ask anyone who runs val, they earn their marks of sometimes years, not giving a winning mark the first time they run.

89 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:49 pm

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
Personally I'd give Devon 2.00m. That way he gives Finegan 3.25m head start as their p.b's are about .3 apart.
Devon at Stawell will be a great news story for the sport.

90 Re: Stawell Gift Final - where do we stand? on Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:54 pm

YETI

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Give Allen 2m & you are practically giving him that winners check.
Simple Allen should be level or behind Ross.

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