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PROTRACK » GENERAL » 2018 Bendigo Black Opal

2018 Bendigo Black Opal

2018 Bendigo Black Opal

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Total Votes : 132

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:32 pm

vicoutsider

avatar
Thought this needed to get a run here, hope you all agree...

Who are your chances? Some interesting running to be had no doubt!

2 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:23 am

Runforit


Well I would have voted for Vine, Ware and Murray, but strangely none of them are running? Also surprised Wiseman not running. Ballarat form would suggest Mitchell and Antidormi/Hanrahan who tried to hide in the Open 4 rather than backies. Don't discount Woodrow or Armour. Camille inconsistent - just misses at Wang and then a week later can't get out of his heat at ballarat?

1st - Antidormi, 2nd - Mitchell, 3rd - Armour with the rest I mentioned who have turned up to final!

3 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:23 pm

GLPR


hoskins
mitchell
sabbatucci
yorke
camille
burleigh
maurer
keenan
rosen
angelakos

winner: angelakos

4 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:20 pm

Ribera

avatar
Expert
Expert
The Bendigo 400m was always regarded as a big time event, generally 2nd behind Stawell, with $2000 first prize in the late 90's. The honour roll up to 2001 included;
1998 - Tim Mason (32m) 44.39
1999 - David Haigh (26m) 45.44
2000 - Anthony Grima (26m) 45.77
 
In 2001 the event was named the Bendigo Black Opal with an advertised total prize pool of around $20,000 (8 or 10 thousand for first plus a black opal worth $6000).
The event is now worth $6000 plus black opal.
 
Black Opal honour roll including leadup run.
 
2017 – Harrison Kerr (32m) 44.79 – (field up 1m) – 1st Wangaratta Gift
2016 – Jack Lacey (34m) 44.98 – (field back 1m) – 6th Ballarat backies
2015 – Liam Procaccino (14m) 45.97 – (field back 6m) – 10th Ballarat backies
2014 – Cam Moss (15m) 46.37 – (field back 8m) – 4th Ballarat backies
2013 – Sam Baird (17m) 45.67 - (field back 3m) – 2nd Ballarat backies
2012 – Josh Mather (9m) 47.75 – (field back 10m) – 4th Ballarat backies
2011 – Brendan Matthews (16m) 46.07
2010 – Adam Coote (31m) 48.05 (the wet year) (field lifted 2m for Wroe) - was run out of the 400m heats at Maryborough, Daylesford and Keilor.
2009 – Ashley Grant (26m) 45.56 - 4th Keilor off 25m.
2008 – Glenn Stephens (34m) 45.59 - 2nd at Burramine the week before.
2007 – Nick Magree (31m) 45.40 – 3rd Ballarat backies.
2006 – Tommy Neim (32m) 44.76 - 4th at Keilor.
2005 – Craig Mair (40m) 45.89 – no 400m leadup form. 1st 2004 Stawell 400m fronties.
2004 – Justin O'Brien (26m) 46.99 - 4th at Keilor. Got a 2m lift for Bendigo.
2003 – Duncan Tippins (12m) 45.60 - 2nd in the Camden classic off 15m.
2002 – Robert Halge (40m) 45.12 - (field lifted 4m for Paul Pearce)  - In lead up races he fell over in the straight in the Sandringham 400m in early Feb then ran 2nd in the Keilor 400m novice off 26m.
2001 – Mark Howard (20m) 46.36 – (field back 10m) - 1st Wangaratta 400m
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The last 6 Opal winners were young and early in their career.
The landscape has changed in the last 2 years with young runners over 30m winning in a canter. The previous 5 winners were young runners around the novice mark.
Only 1 veteran has won in the 17 runnings (Stephens).
The last 16 winners did not record a 400m win in that current season.
5 of the last 6 winners were in the Ballarat backies 400m final.
The last 5 winners have come from the 2 stables of O’Dwyer and Fiedler.
 
 
So for 2018 the main criteria we are looking for (in order);
- A young runner.
- Generally it is someone who has surfaced in the last 4-6 weeks over this distance but could be a major gift winner.
- No 400m wins for season
- Finalist in Ballarat backies 400m (top 4 preferred but not essential)
- Can be in form making final in one or more of the bigger recent 400’s. Ballarat, Camden, Keilor or Avondale.
- Around novice mark or less had become the trend but the last 2 years plus before 2011 the form suggests young and around 30m or more (before field pull).
- O’Dwyer or Fiedler stable
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:33 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Quality work as always Ribera. Someone give this man an honorary Bendigo Opal sash for all this hard work.

6 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:40 pm

Runforit


Pretty sure Ribera already has an Opal sash Dizzy...

7 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:21 pm

Runforit


On what basis are Burleigh and Angelakos getting votes? Burleigh can't get out of the few 400 heats that he has been in, but Angelakos is amazing in his 400m rate per metre being quicker than a lot of his 3's...amazing!

8 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:32 pm

vicoutsider

avatar
Love the breakdown and rational Ribera, legendary and Youngy-esk !! Great work!!

Runforit, must say that Burleigh is a bit of a darky for mine as well, though I see what you mean. Also, without doing the calc for Angelakos' rpm, can't imagine that to be true regarding the 3s/4s. His votes are valid, has finaled in every 400m raced I think??..

My black opal final looks something like this...


Michael Romanin 9
An absolute gun who is running as good as he ever has, if anyone is a chance off a single digit mark, this is the man!

Dominic Hoskins 16
Looks to have improved on past runs though judging by his 400m run at the Vic Champs, he can make the final, though will need to improve some to podium.

Greg Mitchell 18
Podium finish in Ballarat as well as a controversial run at Keilor where he successfully protested against Angelakos to gain access to the final where he then finished runner-up. Has been a really good 400m runner for a while now and will go close.

Lonain Burnett 22
A class act and has been for a while across the middle distance events and even the 300m. Has the early pace and finished power and I believe will lift this weekend.

Samuel Sabbatucci 22
Not as much of a force this season, though has been in many finals and has improved substantially despite the pull in hi mark.

Ryan Camille 28
As mentioned above, he's inconsistent, though no stranger to big races. Despite his small frame, he has speed, power and a great mark for a dual Stawell gift finalist. I expect a podium finish here and wouldn't be surprised if he wins!

Brett Maurer 34
Will go into this as a bit of a sentimental favourite. Now 40 or thereabouts, he's been in the mix for a while and was close to favourite last year if memory serves me correct? I think he'll leave it all out there and finish in the top group if he can back up.

Robert Keenan 35
A really good middle distance athlete who has run off bigger marks in a 400, though I think it's looking like he has got his stuff together. What he lacks in early speed, he makes up for in finishing power.

Noddy Angelakos 39
Has come a little out of left field when it comes to 400s and dangerous every time he's started. Haven't seen him in a 400 since his controversial exit at Keilor... The best placed of the fronties and my pick for the win.

Nickolas Berry 40
Don't believe he's run at all this season in Vic unless I'm mistaken? Will be amongst it though, if he stays ahead of Angelakos in the first 150, could prove troublesome...


Winner: Angelakos by a bee's diafram

Love the Opal and wouldn't be surprised if someone outside of the above, came out and blitsed the field in 44. Thought Ware may have, though we know he loves Easter money...

9 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:39 pm

Baltimore Jack


vicoutsider wrote:Love the breakdown and rational Ribera, legendary and Youngy-esk !! Great work!!

Runforit, must say that Burleigh is a bit of a darky for mine as well, though I see what you mean. Also, without doing the calc for Angelakos' rpm, can't imagine that to be true regarding the 3s/4s. His votes are valid, has finaled in every 400m raced I think??..

My black opal final looks something like this...


Michael Romanin 9
An absolute gun who is running as good as he ever has, if anyone is a chance off a single digit mark, this is the man!

Dominic Hoskins 16
Looks to have improved on past runs though judging by his 400m run at the Vic Champs, he can make the final, though will need to improve some to podium.

Greg Mitchell 18
Podium finish in Ballarat as well as a controversial run at Keilor where he successfully protested against Angelakos to gain access to the final where he then finished runner-up. Has been a really good 400m runner for a while now and will go close.

Lonain Burnett 22
A class act and has been for a while across the middle distance events and even the 300m. Has the early pace and finished power and I believe will lift this weekend.

Samuel Sabbatucci 22
Not as much of a force this season, though has been in many finals and has improved substantially despite the pull in hi mark.

Ryan Camille 28
As mentioned above, he's inconsistent, though no stranger to big races. Despite his small frame, he has speed, power and a great mark for a dual Stawell gift finalist. I expect a podium finish here and wouldn't be surprised if he wins!

Brett Maurer 34
Will go into this as a bit of a sentimental favourite. Now 40 or thereabouts, he's been in the mix for a while and was close to favourite last year if memory serves me correct? I think he'll leave it all out there and finish in the top group if he can back up.

Robert Keenan 35
A really good middle distance athlete who has run off bigger marks in a 400, though I think it's looking like he has got his stuff together. What he lacks in early speed, he makes up for in finishing power.

Noddy Angelakos 39
Has come a little out of left field when it comes to 400s and dangerous every time he's started. Haven't seen him in a 400 since his controversial exit at Keilor... The best placed of the fronties and my pick for the win.

Nickolas Berry 40
Don't believe he's run at all this season in Vic unless I'm mistaken? Will be amongst it though, if he stays ahead of Angelakos in the first 150, could prove troublesome...


Winner: Angelakos by a bee's diafram

Love the Opal and wouldn't be surprised if someone outside of the above, came out and blitsed the field in 44. Thought Ware may have, though we know he loves Easter money...

Nice work vicoutsider
Camille for me. Recent form and his wins shows he only fires in the big ones. Too much speed for these guys. He'll catch Noddy by the 250. Romanin has a huge claims but not sure if he's done the work for a 400. Chimenton has got under the guard in his first year and is in a stable that dominates this race.
Camille
Romanin
Chimenton

10 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:47 pm

Mex

avatar
Moderator
Moderator
An absolute highlight of the season is the Gift and 400m Black opal double. Usually we only have one key race but here the gift sometimes plays second fiddle. Going off Ribera's analysis we are looking at the younger athletes. I like a couple out in front though.

Ryan Camille 28m - 9% - Camille has shown that he is adept to running a quarter. He could potentially have a little cover in the final and be able to run his race on the paint before trying to out sprint someone in front. I can see him in the final, I can see him holding a few off. I do not see him win though. Top three chance.

Matt Burleigh 29m 10% - Burleigh Heads has raced well over the 300m distance so why could he not do some damage in the quarter. He may find himself with Camille on his hammer the entire way around. I feel that he could hold Camille off in the straight, I am not sure is he will panic or get boxed in tough. Final chance.

Brett Maurer 34 11% - A quality athlete who could be right in the mix here. I feel that he will not make the final unless he gets a soft heat and can conserve some energy.

Tim Rosen 35m 11% - The king of the Gifts may become a king of the opal but to be honest I think he is best to sharpen for Easter rather than the opal. He could go alright in two or three races at the end of the season.

Noddy Angelakos 39m - 14% - I like Angelakos and feel that he may be the one to beat. He has a nice, long stride and may not get headed. I feel that the only thing that can beat him is himself. Old together old boy.

Nickolas Berry 40m - 11% - Sometimes I feel that people vote for someone that they want me to highlight. Berry seems like one of these. He has a great mark, no recent form in Vic and could be a real danger. Sometimes you have to wonder if Bendigo is the trial for someone to have a go at Stawell. A Stawell sash is amazing but there was a time when Bendigo was amongst the best wins possible. Berry to make the final and get sucked in to a match race with Noddy. Noddy to get over him with his bell ringing on his hat.

Good luck

11 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:02 pm

Bang bang


Chimerton wins

12 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:37 pm

Whispers


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
At Camden a month ago Berry had the 23rd fastest time out of 25, or for those still trying to work it out , the 3rd slowest on the day.
Same handicap.
I think a few stablemates have set him up.!!!!!!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing
Probably 200m to far for him.

13 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:44 pm

chopper


Most inconsistent scratch handicapping I have seen. Look for athletes in the final who havent been pulled back the "correct " amount. No wonder the Black Opal only has 5 heats. Armour wins

14 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:13 am

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
chopper wrote:Most inconsistent scratch handicapping I have seen. Look for athletes in the final who havent been pulled back the "correct " amount. No wonder the Black Opal only has 5 heats. Armour wins

Where is your evidence that not all athletes have come back the same amount?

15 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:59 pm

chopper


At Doncaster if you did not run in the 400m the range of your pull for Bendigo was -2m to -6m with a mean of -4m, if you did run the range was 0m loss up to 6m loss with a mean of 3.8m loss. SO slightly better off. Rest of field pulled 5m from their marks. So if you entered Doncaster even if you didnt run you are 1m better off than the rest of the field
At Avondale you got on average a 3m pull (range 0, -6m) if you ran and a 3.5m pull if you did not (range -2m, -5m). So you are still 1.5m better off than the rest of the field who did not entern Avondale

If you campare to Bendigo last year - finalists (non-winners and did not win Stawell the next week) got pulled on average 11m (range -6, -15). Non-finalists from last year got pulled on average (range +2, -7). A bit rough if you made the Bendigo final but finished 4th and after
If you compare to Stawell last year  - finalists (non-winners)  got pulled -11m (range -6, -16m). Many Stawell finalists were Bendigo finalists so this is misleading. Non stawell finalists average 6m pull but the range is large (-1, -12)

I think the range of adjustments are so large to be unfair.
You should not get benefit over the rest of the field by entering and not running.
Finalsits (non-placegetters) at the previous year Bendigo and Stawell seem very harshly treated

16 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:21 pm

Admin

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Admin
Admin
Bendigo Black Opal 400m heats



https://youtu.be/AiDkpfJEqfk

http://protrack.forumotion.com

17 Re: 2018 Bendigo Black Opal on Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:29 pm

chopper


how much was the winner pulled from their last run
Was the field back 5m

Stawell backmarkers runner up to overall winner off 34m in 47.27 (he was the fastest NOT to make final)
Keeps handicap next season as an 18yo
Wins Northcote off 34m
Goes back to 27m and gets run out in heats at Maryborough, Ballarat
Lift for Keilor of 2m but run out in heat then rewards the handicapper by running Avondale Heights in 53.20 (his last run before the Opal)

Gets 2m pull for Opal (field gets pulled 5m)
So he ends up with 27m for the opal
Ends up meeting those in the Northcote final with him better off
and everyone in Stawell 400m backmarkers final  4-5m better off

Think of the Stawell backmarkers from last year and he is fastest not to get in the final so they give him a 5m lift and they allow him to get a year older and they run it again
I stand by my inconsistent handicapping comments

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