Bay Sheff Heat 1
Blue Ed Ware 8.25 v Yellow Adam Coote 9.50.
Can't see the others featuring in this.
K Brittain & C Hargreaves both scratched.
L Wright & S Ryder
Good heat to open with. Both recent Stawell Gift place getters & ran well at Stawell this year. From Stawell 2013, Ware back 2.0m, Coote back 1.50m.
Should be close with Ware catching Coote early but Coote to come back & win by inches from Ware.
Coote & Ware.
Red Shaun Hargreaves 6.50 v White Andrew Boudrie 7.50 & maybe Green Glenn Ross 10.00 to be in the mix.
Others are M Voumard, L Weir & J Noblet who will be a scratching after injuring himself in the Over 35's.
Hargreaves has the form coming in off the back of his Warragul win. Boudrie is well in at the marks but does not appear to be going as well as he was at Stawell. Ross could grab a SF spot if either faulters. But we'll stick with the Red to win from White.
S Hargreaves & Boudrie.
Might be a four way go for the semis - White Seb Baird 7.50, Blue Damian Tohl 8.25, Yellow Josh Tiu 9.25 & Green Adam Moore 10.00.
Others are Baker & Hoffman.
Tohl has been there done that so we know he does well on this track. Tiu also enjoys the track having won three races here. However Tiu didn't look so good in the 70m today. Whereas Moore ran pretty well & goes forward to 10. I think these two will fight it out with Tiu & Baird another metre away.
Tohl & Moore
Good heat for a smokie. Red Matt Hargreaves 6.25, Blue Jordan Tronnolone 7.50, maybe Yellow Dean Dobric 9.25 look the obvious chances.
Others are VanDerLinden, Menz & Hignett.
Tronnolone was 2nd two years ago off 8.75 & ran 4th at Brighton. Matt Hargreaves is a class pro runner who knows what it takes to make big finals. Dobric doesn't have the big race experience of the other two & this might be against him, so we'll stick with the main two.
Matt Hargreaves might be close enough in the marks to get up in this but won't be much in it.
M Hargreaves & Tronnolone.
Another for the interstaters with White Matt Short 7.25, Yellow Rhys Parkinson 9.00 the best chances.
Parkinson will want to make up for not turning up to parade for the 70m & missing his heat.
Others are Woodhams, Letton & A Harrison & Cracroft-Wilson.
Short was 3rd last year & his recent form in Perth has been pretty good. He should win although Parkinson will be right in it up to the line. Cracroft-Wilson has scratched.
Short & Parkinson
Red Scarff 5.75, White Nicolosi 7.25, Blue Sheffield 8.00 & Black Hicks 11.00 look the ones to watch.
Others are Hoskins & Kipreou, although Hoskins might be a wild card in this. Strong head wind would bring him into it.
But we'll stick with the proven Gift runners & that's where Scarff is a huge chance, not just for the heat bit also the final. I'm looking at him to run quick in this. Hicks has been given a massive opportunity to make the final after running 5th at Brighton off 8.25. Both are genuine final chances.
Nicolosi & Sheffield might have struck a fast heat & would need to run extra well to advance.
Scarff & Hicks.
Cracking heat with the first five all in the contest. Red Alex Bubner 5.75, White Ben Weaver 7.00, Blue Luke Houlihan 8.00, Yellow Michael Dotti 9.00 & Green Ryan Camille 9.75.
Tyson Hancock is the odd man out!
Bubner was very ordinary at Brighton but he was a finalist off this mark in 2012. However he was going better this time last year. Weaver is the one I think could open this heat up. Electrifying off the mark when he's in best shape. Only back 1m from Stawell where he ran 12.18, makes me think he's the one to beat. Houlihan has done well for a first year novice winning the Restricted in Day One. Camille was 4th at Stawell & is back 2.25.
While Stawell form can't be ignored, Houlihan won the Restricted well & now looks the danger to Weaver. Camille & Bubner to miss.
Weaver & Houlihan
Red James Vine 5.50, White Michael Brusnahan 6.75 & Yellow Doug Greenough 8.75 probably the only chances.
Others are Cordoma, Fenolla & Foley.
Vine is a big chance for the Bay after a super impressive 3rd place at Stawell. Comes back 2.50m but has a mortgage on this heat. If Greenough is in decent shape he gets the 2nd spot, but he is yet to fire at Colley Reserve. Brusnahan has been disappointing lately, beaten in a 200m at SANTOS stadium by TJ Sanderson-Milera & struggled in the relay champs. But the doubt on Greenough, makes me lean towards Brusnahan in a slowish time but a long way behind Vine.
Vine & Brusnahan
Red Aaron Bresland 5.25, Yellow Gus Carty-Cowling 8.50 & Black Neil Thomas 10.75 the main contenders.
Others are Ortiz, Bulabek & Berry.
Bresland was heavily backed today with one bet of $2400 to $200. Now into 10-1. Showed he was in PB shape with a windy 10.62 recently. Three Gift wins this year shows Thomas is in best shape. Carty-Cowling is a mystery & hard to work out. But he can run & should get through.
Bresland & Thomas
Hard heat to pick, probably a front markers race Green Dylan Panizza 8.50 V Black Ryan Hancock 10.50.
Others Atkins, Foster, Innes-Wong, Eather.
Atkins unknown, Foster 17yo & runs off 9+ in NSW may sneak through if either runs a big race. But both Panizza & Hancock are Bay Sheff finalists & look the best chances. Panizza only back 0.25 from last year & is the likely winner. Innes-Wong was a surprise 2nd in the Restricted & could get through if either of the other two fails to show his best.
Panizza & Hancock
Tough heat with 4 chances - Red Sam Baines 5.00, Yellow Adam Rabone 8.50, Black David Gross 10.25 & Ben Wright 11.00.
Others are Forrest & Crichton.
Forrest has talent but hard to see him make the semis from this heat.
Baines is in great shape with a 47.37 400m PB only 4wks ago. Tight mark but he's good enough to get through. Dunmall confirmed scratching while Rabone looked OK in the 70, but there's a doubt about his ability over 120. So the obvious other choice is Gross. Wright won't be far away & will probably run 3rd.
Baines & Gross
Despite the doubt around WL-S, this heat should be a cracker - the White James Cibich 7.00 V the Blue Ollie Wurm 7.50.
Others are Long-Scafidi, Lizoguboff & Todd. Law & Ezard are scratched.
The clash of Cibich & Wurm will be a highlight of the heats. Wurm ran the quickest heat 2 years ago but was beaten by Caldow in the SF. If he's in that shape again he might give Cibich something to worry about. The heat winner is just about a certain finalist. Both Wurm & Cobich were well supported with Wurm now into 9-1 with Cibich at 7-1. Should be quick.
Cibich & Wurm
Another with four good SF chances. Red Robbie James 4.75, White Ben Mispelhorn 6.75, Yellow Jake Jervis-Bardy 8.50 & Matthew Harvey 10.25.
Others are Verrall, Garnett & Taylor.
Jervis-Bardy was 2nd at Brighton & looks the obvious choice. Harvey won Bendigo in March & still went forward 0.25 from last year, putting him well in. Mispelhorn ran well at Stawell 12.20s off 8.0 - in that shape, he probably makes the semis.
As much as it's hard to see Robbie James getting through in this one, he has made 3 finals, the last one off 4.50. Up 0.25 so won't be far out of it.
Latest news is Mispelhorn was well supported and is now the Gift favourite at 3-1. Have to put him in the top two.
Jervis-Bardy & Mispelhorn
On paper this looks like a one man heat. Race favourite Tjimarri Sanderson-Milera 7.50 has no-one in the heat with any form this season to suggest he won't win comfortably.
Only others to consider are Red Clay Watkins 3.25 & White David Tinney 7.00.
And the rest, all locals, make up the numbers - Turner, Thiel, Brown & Simpson.
Watkins looks best placed to go through with Milera. Looked OK at Brighton over 70m and we know he goes well on this track having a Bay Sheff win & 4th place. if he's over the niggling leg issues, he should make it through. Tinney would need to get back to his 2012 form when he won Ballarat.
Another heat where the SA runners will get through.
Watkins & Sanderson-Milera
Last heat has three genuine contenders in the Red Jordan Caldow 1.25, Blue Alex Saliu 7.50 & Green Dale Lyons 9.50.
Others are Stewart, Yuel, Dartnall & Schutz.
Saliu should win this heat comfortably. And it could be reasonably quick. No form of note on Caldow this season and it's hard seeing him being the same shape as the last 3 years. Lyons made the Terang Gift final off 9.0 & goes forward 0.50. Lyon made the Restricted final & he should also be around the mark for a SF berth.
While he has won a Loxton Gift & made several finals up until this summer, Dartnall has been out of form this season & it's hard seeing him overcoming Lyon for that 2nd spot.
Stick with Saliu & Lyon
Last edited by Admin on Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:13 am; edited 1 time in total