Stawell Gift Final Predictions

Enough talk about the SAAL and dodgy masters, let’s get some chit chat on the biggest race of the year, with most of the lifts sorted and bigger gifts run and won, who’s got the juice this year??

Harrison hunt for me.

Luke Houlihan
Back to right his wrong of 2015, if can get back to that form he will feature big time, if improves have him very low 12s

ryan camille
In best form seen in long time, with last years winners coach and will be mighty hard to run down, have him in front for a long way.

Ed Ware
in sharp form and tough off 10m

Hunt
Quality young athlete who is right in this

matt burleigh
His best year yet and has the mark, big watch

Hastings – Max Mason – 5m – 12.519 – New handicap 5.75m – Maxi Bon ran well on a soft track. His 12.499 at Stawell off 5m in 2019 suggests that he has improved. Will we see him again before Easter? I am not sure. Off numbers we have, he would be about 12.40. I have him going quicker than that. I am not sure if he has a 12.1 in him but will be one to watch during the heats on Easter Saturday. Outside chance of a final.

Warrnambool – Harrison Hunt – 2.5m – 12.378 – New handicap 3.50m – His Stawell handicap puts him right in the window. This guy can move. Rough numbers again show him running a low 12.2 or 12.1. Get the competitive juices running and he can final. Will be dangerous if he can hold his body together. Final.

Terang – Luke Houlihan – 5.5m – 12.671 – New handicap 6.50m – Good to see Green street hooligan back to near his best. Rough numbers have him in a semi but not in the final. Big lad, if he does find his peak at the right time could go close to a final. Not my pick.

Waverley – Jasper Nettlefold – 5.5m – 10.346 – Ran off 5.5m, will have 7.50m at Stawell (off the VAL website). Jasper the Friendly ghost is an interesting one here. Ran a 12.5 when he won Ballarat but has not really shown me much since. I have been waiting and I think this may be the time. Semi is almost a monty, final a chance. A better athlete now.

Maryborough – Fejiro Omuvwie – 3.5m – 12.348 – Has won twice so will not receive the bonus. Ran off 1.75m at Keilor so may sneak out to 2.25m. 12.3 off 3.5m is good going. I can’t see him finding 3 metres or more to win though.

Daylesford – Ryan Camille – 7.75m – 10.983 – Will have 9.50m at Stawell. Camille has made the gift final before. I don’t feel that he will make the final here and if he does I am confident that there will be someone who will chase him down or run away from him. He does get out well and could lead for 60m if he does make the final. Semi for me though.

Rye – Matt Burleigh – 10m – 12.274 – New handicap 10m. Burleigh will be on the limit and dangerous. He has made big finals before and is a chance to do so this year. Not sure how far under 12.2 he can go. Finals chance.

St Albans – Ed Ware – 9.25m – 12.48 – New handicap 10m. Has not shown the same speed since although track conditions must be considered. Another who has made big finals before, but I feel that he does not have the low 12.1 in him. May sneak into the final, not sure he can win though.

Wangaratta – Jason Bailey – 7.25m – 12.423 – New handicap 8m. Made the final last season and is well placed to go close again. Is the ‘Big Show’ the ‘Real Show’? Another who needs to find an additional 2m. Semi, maybe final.

Maribyrnong – Liam Moss – 4.75m – 12.849 – New handicap 5.50m. The Maribyrnong track does not allow for fast times. Having said that, the women’s gift winner was not much slower than her Wangaratta time so maybe this was just slow. Semi, not a finalist for me.

Parkdale – Jack Boulton – 6m – 12.592 – New handicap 6.50m. ‘Jumpin’ has set the pro scene on fire this season making finals at will. He is a quality young runner and I think we will hear more about him. I am not convinced that he will run at Stawell but assuming he will, let’s look at his times. He ran 12.4 off 6m at Wangaratta. I feel that he runs as fast as he can each week, so I think he will only find a little. Maybe a 12.28 or slower. Not sure he will make the final.

Ballarat – Michael Hanna – 4.75m – 12.358 – New handicap 5.25m. We were waiting on Barbera to jump and he did. Right in it with a 12.2 something coming up. Challenge for him will be can he handle those around him who can also run similar times? Semi, chance of the final.

Keilor – Rupert LUGO – 8.5m – 12.573 – New handicap 9m. ‘Robert’ is definitely a fan favourite. I believe that ‘Rubert’ would be a popular finalist. ‘Rumpet’ will need to find a little more to take it all out. I just hope if he does win that they spell his name correctly. ‘Rupert Lego’!

I am working on the women’s as well. Some have blown their chances by taking out multiple wins or running too fast. I am also unsure what the limit will be if Masters enters. You may find it shifting to 12m.

Mex doesn't mason get 1m lift for Hastings. Given it was a slow track this year his race was very impressive. And he gave a heap of good runners whiplash. I think he is the Chico of 2019. Hard to beat if in form or better since.

misconduct wrote:Mex doesn't mason get 1m lift for Hastings. Given it was a slow track this year his race was very impressive. And he gave a heap of good runners whiplash. I think he is the Chico of 2019. Hard to beat if in form or better since.

0.75m this year. VAL website has a post about lifts on the front page, and confirms this.

As requested by Mex, here are my thoughts on the chances of each of the Stawell Gift lift winners far. I'll go in reverse order to you Mex.

Lugo: Based on the weekend he would have to be a chance to go 12.2-3 at Stawell on a far more friendly track. That is with no further improvement from now until then. I'll be watching his 70's closely from now until Stawell to see how he goes against the likes of Bailey from a metre ahead, and Burleigh from a metre behind.

Hanna: 5.25m is a fairly handy mark come Stawell for a guy with a PB of 10.68. I don't think it'll be enough to make a final, but if he draws the right semi he can sneak in. I'm thinking he will run slightly faster than his ballarat time come Stawell.

Boulton: If the Stawell Gift was his only focus all season, there's no doubt 6.5m is enough to final. But I think you'll find Jack will spend the rest of his season trying to run 47s and below for a 400 and sneak his way onto the World Junior team either in a relay or the individual.

Moss: I think this will be very Similar to Hanna. Has a quarter of a metre more than Hanna, with a PB slightly slower. It'll all depend how much he improves between now and then. I wonder if we can get some video of him vs Houlihan at Santos to give us more of an idea about how those two are going. His run in Canberra the other night was impressive on a night where a lot of runners struggled.

Bailey: Certainly not lacking confidence these days is Jason. But in fairness to him he is a far better athlete even this year than last. In my opinion he has improved a couple of metres on last year. And is 2m back. Therefore he has to be a top 3 chance. And certainly a chance to final. He will run a similar time at Stawell this year, but off 2m less. Which would be a very good effort.

Ware: Honestly would not have a clue. I think he might have other focuses this year outside of the gift, but if the Ed Ware of St.Albans turns up come Easter Monday then why can't he make another Stawell Gift Final? He made a very good final field look silly. I personally hope he is going well enough to make a Gift Final, cos it keeps him away from other events at Stawell

Burleigh: The most likely guy that everyone has to run down in the gift final. He destroyed the field at Rye. One of the most impressive gift wins of the season. He starts 2m ahead of Bailey here, and does so in the 70s so we can get an idea off that. I think the last 40-50 they are similar speeds, so whoever is winning the 70m battle by the end of the season will be the Ireland runner finishing ahead come Stawell.

Camille: Two time Stawell Gift finallist. But has never won a heat at Stawell. So I think Ryno will be trying to tick that one off the bucket list to start But in all seriousness, that win at Daylesford was clearly the best I've seen him move since his last Stawell Final, and I don't think he was anywhere near his best yet. If he stays injury free from now until Stawell I think he is a massive chance to make it 3 Gift Finals. Will be ahead in the semi with 20 to go...

Omuvwie: What a season this legend is having! Back to 1.75m now because of multiple wins and I assume he will turn up at Stawell off maybe 2m? I think he could run 10.49 and below at nationals in 6 weeks time, but that still won't be enough to win Stawell. And probably not enough to final either.

Nettlefold: He is off a similar mark to Bailey in the 70, and has run similar times to him. And starts half a metre behind him in the gift. He certainly has the right coach if he wants to go well at Stawell. Matt Carter is a gun. But can he go past Bailey? But then you look at this Waverley run and he has beaten Burleigh, Bailey, Lugo by 1m plus. One of the real unknowns come Easter time.

Houlihan: Quite simply, if Houlihan is in the shape he was in when he came 2nd off 7.25m at Stawell in 2015, he will final this year off 6.5m. He might even be a chance to win. We can't forget that in his semi he ran 12.02 raw in the wet. We just have not seen him in that shape since. But a few of my sources are telling me that he is only a metre or two off that and going better than what some may think.

Hunt: More than capable of making a final off 3.5 if he is in the same shape he was in at Warnambool. The worry is doing a massive Hammy in December. I have no idea what his recovery has been like, the shape he is in now, and can't really comment until I see him race in some form. At his best he probably has the guys just ahead of him in the marks covered. Except one.

Mason:The 2020 Stawell Gift Winner if he turns up fit and without injury niggles. I'll leave it at that. That's all that needs to be said.

Jack Hale off scratch to win the gift, question is will they lift the field for him? Followed by Mason, Bailey and potentially Hunt if he is moving like he was pre hamstring.

Hey Youngy,

I am only going by previous Olympics/Worlds campaigns but it really depends on the athlete. Athletes with individual qualifiers and automatic selection have a lot more say over what they do between Nationals and the Olympics. They can plan their own campaign with their coach. Athletes who have only been selected in relays or potential relay squads are a bit more at the mercy of the AA high performance department. And can be instructed where to run and not run.

In saying all that, I highly doubt Hale would risk injury by competing at Stawell only a couple of weeks after nationals. If he did have the qual he would be preparing for the Olympics. If he didn't he would probably go race in Japan to get some points and qualify that way.


P.s. Just want to further what other people have said to you in saying you have the full support of myself and many others in Vic. What has happened to you, some of your squad, and many other athletes over in SA is so incredibly poor. And horrible for the sport. I won't go into further details on here. But don't let the deeds of a few duds ruin it for you.

I agree with T. Rosen, Mason for Men’s if he brings Hastings form.

Kysha Praciak to keep the Pride dominance flying. The ‘ pocket rocket’ put the 120’s on hold after Hastings and .75 lift.

Bossenbanter wrote:Jack Hale off scratch to win the gift, question is will they lift the field for him? Followed by Mason, Bailey and potentially Hunt if he is moving like he was pre hamstring.

Jack hale is well off the winners and 0 chance of taking home a Stawell sash, he was well off making the Burnie final as well.

Hale won’t be running

My current top 6:
Mason
Nettlefold
Moss
Lugo
Bailey
Houlihan

I think it is pretty open this year, hopefully we will see a number of athletes going 12.1 or better.
I've left Hunt out due to injury concerns but hopefully he is fit and firing at the business end.
I think anyone who purchases tickets to the 'Big Show' may want to check the refund policy...

For the ladies I agree that Praciak is the one to beat. Has been dominant with 5 sashes already this year and deserves to start favourite.
Philis appears to be the main danger.

Big chance Hale will be there come Easter Monday, the man said it himself. Also, he is coached by Adam Larcom who always sent ARS up to Stawell to race.

rumour has it Max Mason has unfortunately torn his hamstring

Bill Clinton wrote:rumour has it Max Mason has unfortunately torn his hamstring

Who is your source? straight from their team? Bill Clinton is not the most trustworthy of accounts.

Liam Moss with a 10.63 and 21.53 and Houlihan with a 21.93 over the weekend at SA champs, couple of juicy results there boys

Men’s: , Bailey, Mason, Lugo, moss, nettlefold, Burleigh
Women’s: praciak, s fighera, masters, Neale, Bailey, rauch

Tiles wrote:Men’s: , Bailey, Mason, Lugo, moss, nettlefold, Burleigh
Women’s: praciak, s fighera, masters, Neale, Bailey, rauch

Very nice predictions mate

Mens:
Rizzo
Houlihan
Nettlefold
Lugo
Bailey
Burleigh

Subs: Moss, Dunmall, Antonino, Hunt, Mason  

Womens:
Domaschenz
Fighera
Praciak
Philis
Neale
Bailey

Subs: Basic, Ryan, Shillito, Grandine