Random Race of the week - 400m

By popular demand and by a huge number of entries the 400m is where it is at this week. Not the biggest race to win on the circuit though. Who do you like?

1st Richards

2nd Coop

3rd Harvey

The more you put on the more you get back

Drummond or Haigh. After Ballarat it should be Drummond.

Do we really need a 100m limit in a 400 where the backie is off 20? fair enough if this was fronties 400.
But with 100m limit it's a 300m race for those out front.
Are the marks creeping out? guy with decent 400 history behind them getting out to marks where breaking 47sec would be easy if they're fit. Gilroy 20? Spencer 27? Verrall 26? Wurm 28? Rooke 28? Romanelli 28? Even guys like Haigh off 53?
If it keeps going at this rate, 400 backies at Stawell will be won in 45ish

Good point. The limit should be raised to 150m to include more runners.
Seriously! How often does a frontie off 85 win a 400m? Just let 'em run.

On another note, last year's Stawell Backies and Fronties were won in 46.6 and 46.8. The previous year it was 46.1 and 45.8. Can't see a problem with marks drifting out. If they break the ceiling, they get pulled back.

A wise man recently told me - 'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.'

OK DR but I prefer an impartial opinion.
Dizzyrunners by name and nature benefit most by humungous limits in sprint events.
Last time dizzies used blocks was in kindergarten, and even then when presented with a square hole and a round block their answer was to get a chisel and make the hole bigger.

The voting here was very good but very spread. I usually like to talk about the best chances but it is hard here so I have gone for something a little different. Maybe I have too much time on my hands but I always write myself some notes to make sure I don't say the wrong thing. With no clear poll favourite, here are my notes for one of our smaller 400’s on the circuit and the last chance along with Ararat for someone to pick up a small one before Avondale ($2000), Ringwood ($3500), Bendigo and Stawell. With no Stephens, Hughes, Downes, Maurer, York or Page in the entries, someone out of the below group must win if they start. I suspect many will scratch. Hopefully they adopt the “If you don’t want to win, don’t run” policy.

In order on current form.

Andrew Drummond
In last year’s Stawell 400m final. 3rd Ballarat frontmarkers in a welcome return to form. Is also starting to sprint well. Had time up after 400m heats at Stawell and Ballarat. If he runs he wins.

Carrick Gill-Vallance
3rd in Stawell 400m frontmarkers last year. Was devastating in winning St Albans 300m beating subsequent Ballarat gift winner before idling around in Wangaratta 400 heats. Must have been tired at Wangaratta. St Albans form has him winning this.

Jack Anderson
2nd Ballarat backmarkers. Young up and comer with a bit of class who made Stawell 550 final last year. Looks a real thoroughbred (sorry for the horse reference her no Winx intended). Will be mixing distances between 400 and 800 so should be able to round the field up here on the soft spongey track. Will be prominent in feature events over the next few years.

Jared Gilroy
Seems a big handicap for a bloke that should be off 4.50m in a 120m gift. I say should because he has 5.50m in the gift which is his Stawell lifted handicap from last season after winning Yarra 100m off 4.00m. Not far off them in heat of Devonport 400m off 17m. Beat Callum James home in Burnie 400m final and meets him 2m better off here. If not in gift final will give this a shake.

Callum James
Good form in Tasmania before a 2nd at Rye and a 3rd in Ballarat backmarkers. Starting to sprint well in gifts. Is my favourite for Bendigo Opal so will not run here. As I said in another post he is trained by an astute trainer, enough said.

David Haigh
4th in last year’s Stawell 400m final. 3rd at Rye, 2nd at Wangaratta after leading into the straight on both occasions and being run down. Due for a change of luck. Seems to be Drummond’s bunny having been beaten by him in fastest heat time at both Stawell and Ballarat.

Nick Howard
Seems to be in every major final finishing towards the tail in all of them. Last year Ringwood gift final, Stawell final. This year finals at Castlemaine, Rye & Ballarat. Is still young and has a handicap where he is surrounded by veterans. He is due to win something soon. Maybe $2000 Avondale 400 next week?

Connor Verrall
Sth Aussie former junior state hurdles champion who impressively won the 300m open at Marion in Jan. Goes up 3m on his SA handicap so meets Wurm better here. In last weeks Camden Classic consolation final which is a higher grade than this here. Should feature in this.

Ollie Wurm
The human lumbricina was 2nd in the rich Devonport 400m Gift at Tassie Christmas carnival. Been quiet since but did pop into the Rye final. If he re-produces the Tassie form then he beats most of these.

Wallace McGown
Visitor from Scotland who was up to his neck in everything 2 years ago on last visit. Up from 60m to 65m here. If in shape can win.

Tom Hecimovic
Starting to get back out to his Avondale 400m winning handicap from last year. Final at Ballarat & Wangaratta. Is very tough to run down and may just take the opportunity to pinch this one.

Noddy Angelakos
Last year’s Ballarat gift winner on 42m!

With the bigger handicap limit and only 300+ metres to run, the female competitors will prominent. Look for anyone from recent womens finals. I suspect the best will be Megan McMahon, Jody Richards, Danielle McDowell, Stephanie Mollica. Hawks is best on handicap but out of form.

How can they all go missing this week? This could be one of the best tactical finals to watch ever.

Nice work Mex. You have written up about so many athletes that this almost counts as a Trinity 400m form guide!

Nice work Mex.
7 of the 16 you named ran in the heats. You got 6 in the final including 1st to 4th.
Nick Howard – 1st
Connor Verrall – 2nd
Callum James – 3rd
Carrick Gill-Vallance – 4th
Danielle McDowell – 6th
Wallace McGown – 10th
Jared Gilroy – run out of heats. Not near the Burnie 400 form you mentioned.

Andrew Drummond - scratched
Jack Anderson - scratched
Ollie Wurm - scratched
Tom Hecimovic - scratched
Noddy Angelakos – scratched
Stephanie Mollica - scratched
David Haigh – 300 final
Jody Richards – 120m womens final
Megan McMahon – 120m womens final

Good tipping Mex, but I thought you said Callum James was trained by an astute trainer?! 3rd in Ballarat Backies, but couldn't pick up the win at Trinity?

Runforit wrote:Good tipping Mex, but I thought you said Callum James was trained by an astute trainer?! 3rd in Ballarat Backies, but couldn't pick up the win at Trinity?

Did he win it or get called in? Not according to the Stewards report. Pretty astute to me.