Random Race of the week - 3200m

Not many entries for this race but an interesting event just the same.

Mara and Higham the vote getters so far. On my calcs based on amateur p.b's Higham will be 100m behind Mara at the finish. Carmilla Wishaw will get closer but not much.

Mara
3000m – 8.21 + 32 (for 190 extra metres)
= 8.53

Higham
3000m – 9.53 – 40 (for 200 less metres)
= 9.13

Wishaw
3000m – 9.47 – 39 (for 200 less metres)
= 9.08

Mara to win his 2nd 2 mile for this season, collect the bonus money and win off scratch at Wang. (Just romancing here but would be great to see).

Yes hats off to Mara he is at the top of his game and starting to post some excellent times. Great to see

Did he not do the triple a few years back though ? Is it truly that easy for him.

It makes you wonder if the handicapper & the HRP are actually taking this Event seriously. An 8.53 nett for him when nett is I believe in excess of 9.00 and from Warrnambool 2nd 9.21 no lift, 3rd no lift, 4th 10m & 5th no lift hardly evening up the competition and making it a close right.

Lucky they put these couple of kids in off good competitive marks, we are not going to have another Northcote 800 on our hands are we

I am with you Ribera the romance will be nice.

Just to be clear, it is not an 8.53 net for Mara. It is 8.53 on synthetic then add 8 secs (1 sec per lap for grass). That puts him at 9.01 where the event ceiling point in 9.00. He is in the exact position every pro runner wants to be in. Whilst the majority of the field are handicapped to the start time (9.10 or worse), he has improved himself to his ceiling point.
The other thing in his favour are there are not too many genuine 2 mile athletes around in the pros these days. It is a specific event that suits certain types. With 3 laps to go you find out the genuine 2 milers from the pretenders.

Thanks for clearing this up Ribera,

Which means the 2 young girls are being handicapped at around 9.20 which I believe is a reasonable starting spot for first time runners.

I guess my concern is the lack of competition on this basis that Mara is going to have, on your scenario he is clearly 20 seconds ahead of the field and with 20M pulls the field needs to improve to prevent him from clean sweeping. Which is reasonable to expect if they want to win, just not sure that's going to happen.

There seems to be some genuine 2 milers in the field but I would say none capable of running nett time and with only 1 of the top 5 being lifted from Warrnambool no genuine attempt to make this a competitive race.

Agree Mushy. However, the handicappers job is not to even the field up to match Mara or the ceiling time of 9.00. It is to get the runners in the early meets to 9.10 start time and move them towards 9.00 as the season progresses. The danger for the handicapper is not the runners we know but the runners we don't know. Richter last year came out of nowhere and won Stawell. He ran Ballarat off the novice mark of 150m then got a 20m lift for Stawell which was fair.
I'd say Mara is 10 secs in front of the main contenders as they are marked to run around 9.10 start time.
Richter ran 9.10 to win Stawell on a sodden track last year. That may have equated to around 9.00 had it been dry, so with his 50m pull he is marked around 9.10. Spence ran 9.15 2 years ago at Stawell and has gone up 40m, so he is rated about 9.08. Bacalja, Burrows, Sait and Nolan are also genuine 2 milers who are capable on their given day to run under 9.10.
The other group are the veterans. The genuine 2 milers are Noden, Muir, Quilty, Longmuir, Leon Brooks, Harris and Hipworth. The problem is the front division has been streets off the back division in recent years.
So, in summary, Mara to win by 50m (unless he takes a sit somewhere in the race and just wins).

ps. The same rules apply to all other events and the runner who has improved themselves to the ceiling time has beaten the handicapper fairly. It is just the 2 mile suits only certain types of runners that the contenders are thinned out dramatically. Hippo group have won 10 out of the last 11 2 mile events in the VAL (not my stats so hope this is correct) and this will continue until 5k and 10k runners start entering.

Excellent summary there Ribera cannot dispute any of that, can I also add that 11 of the last 12 winners have been on a mark of 170 or less as well.

It seems that second division of runners you mention basically all veterans but great contributors to our sport have been left behind a bit. This maybe due to the lack of 2 miles over previous years and hence less opportunity for movement IMO.

Dizzy is shattered he missed all this discussion about the most exciting event in pro-racing.
Both Mushroom and Ribera offer excellent analysis.

Given the factors already raised, it is obviously an incredibly difficult event to handicap. 3 questions spring to mind given points already made:
1. Should athletes be given lifts based on how uncompetitive they are, (ie. the more uncompetitive, the greater the lift, or should the lift be standardised, ie. outside of the top 3 receives a single 10m or 20m lift?
2. Should athletes who enter but do not compete in 3200m races be given lifts for free? And what kind of future entries/racing might this encourage/discourage?
3. Should athletes finishing in the placings be given lifts (as has been the occasional policy this year)?

Yes agree Dizzy the most exciting event in pro racing ;-)

IMO I believe a lot of Athlete's may have been left behind in this event due to the number of races on the Calendar and a declining group of Athlete's. All athletes should be consider for a lift after every run with the intention to get them out to the Net time of 9.10 which seems a long way for most.

I do however feel that responsibility should fall upon the Athlete and if they are not showing improvement as well then the lift should be minimal and in some cases no lift at all.

I do not think that lifts should be standardised publicly but the Handicapper should have his own system in doing this so as to be favouring one athlete against another.

Most definitely if you enter a 3200M race and are given a mark and do not run, you should not be lifted during the year until you run off that mark.

And finally yes I believe athletes finishing in the placing's should be considered for a lift again with the aim to get out to the 9.10 net mark.

As you say Dizzy it is a very difficult race to handicap but there are a lot of dual winners over the last number of years in this race (and well deserved winners at the same time) but it does not entice new runners if the same group of Athletes are getting up to win each race.

It is probably training specific for this event which assist in the result but I seem to think if you can get a good 1600m out surely you have the capacity to last 3200m or less for most.

Just my thoughts.